We are officially two days away from NBA free agency, with the market opening on Friday evening for teams to begin negotiating with potential targets.
There are countless exciting storylines entering free agency, with several surprises likely on the way, and several impactful players could find new homes during the period. With the madness kicking off Friday night, I’ll dive into a few key storylines that could change the landscape of the NBA as we know it.
Championship Contributors Potentially On The Move
Key contributors to each of the last three NBA champions could potentially be on the move come Friday, though I don’t necessarily believe all four of the guys I’m about to dive into will find new homes.
Starting with the Milwaukee Bucks, Khris Middleton’s decision to opt out of his player option — which would have netted him around $40 million next season — was concerning across the Milwaukee fanbase. Middleton served as the No. 2 scoring option behind Giannis Antetokounmpo en route to Milwaukee’s 2021 NBA title, but injuries have derailed each of his last two campaigns — with him appearing in just 99 games across the last two regular seasons (not including seven playoff games). Middleton saw a considerable drop-off in efficiency across his 33 appearances last season, producing just 15.1 points per game while shooting a career-worst 43.6 percent, though he was much better in Milwaukee’s opening-round loss to the Miami Heat in the playoffs.
Joining Middleton in unrestricted free agency is center Brook Lopez, whose ability to stretch the floor and rim-protecting prowess would be a nice haul for any team. The 34-year-old center appeared in 78 games last season in which he tallied a career-high 2.5 blocks while scoring 15.9 points per game — his best average since his Brooklyn days in 2016-17.
Middleton is widely expected to return to Milwaukee on a more team-friendly deal, according to several reports. Lopez’s status remains somewhat in the air, with the big man courting considerable attention from the Houston Rockets, though long-time NBA reporter Marc Stein noted that he is “leaning toward a Bucks return.”
Like Middleton, Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green also opted out of a sizeable player option to test the free agency waters. Green, a member of Golden State’s dynastic core alongside Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, has had a few rifts with the organization over the past few seasons, but it’s hard to imagine the Warriors without the presence of Green. Although he’s lost a step since claiming the Defensive Player of the Year in 2016-17, Green would still be an impactful member for a contender thanks to his defensive acumen and playmaking ability.
Although Green has been linked to the likes of the Sacramento Kings, Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Lakers, he is also expected to return to Golden State.
While Middleton, Lopez and Green were all starters on championship-winning teams, Bruce Brown was an impactful spark off the bench for the title-winning Denver Nuggets this season. Brown brings a bulldog attitude to the floor, possessing hounding perimeter defense and unmatched hustle, while also being a solid offensive option due to his prowess as a cutter and shooter.
Brown’s status remains unclear, with Denver teammate Jamal Murray hinting at a potential return in an interview earlier this week, though several reports have tied Brown to the New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks. Full disclosure, I would absolutely love Brown in his hometown of Boston, though the Celtics likely wouldn’t be able to get a deal done.
The Dame Factor
Nicky already touched on the Damian Lillard saga quite a bit yesterday, and despite reports that the Blazers and Lillard have agreed to continue their partnership, this roller-coaster offseason is still far from over for both parties.
Despite that agreement, I could still envision a scenario where Lillard isn’t happy with Portland’s offseason and requests a trade. Therefore, the pressure is on Portland’s front office to appease the 32-year-old guard.
With a Lillard-sized cloud hanging over the franchise, the Trail Blazers will likely approach the offseason with the intent to keep their superstar guard happy. The first piece of that approach would be to resign forward Jerami Grant, who scored 20.5 points per game on 47.5 percent shooting last season for the Blazers.
The Trail Blazers remain engaged with Green, another one of Lillard’s preferred additions, but that appears to be a pipe dream with Green likely to return to the Warriors. Outside of Green, Portland doesn’t really have any other game-changing options, with the likes of James Harden and Kyrie Irving being unrealistic options, as well as incompatible with Lillard.
Portland could still swing a trade for a star-caliber player with several strong assets including Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe, though much of the buzz surrounding a potential trade has died out since the Blazers decided to use their No. 3 overall pick — which was another valuable asset — on Scoot Henderson.
Regardless of how the Blazers build around Dame, the message is clear: they either appease their veteran point guard or risk losing him.
Harden Heading Home?
Harden is one of the marquee free agents in the pool this offseason, and it appears only two teams are really in the running for the former MVP: his current team, the Philadelphia 76ers, and his former squad, the Houston Rockets.
Of course, Harden grew into one of the greatest scorers the NBA has ever seen during his time with the Rockets, earning the organization’s first MVP since Hakeem Olajuwon in 2017-18. In his final three seasons with the Rockets, Harden averaged more than 30 points per game — including an eye-popping 36.1 points per game in 2018-19 — but since leaving Houston, Harden has grown into more of a facilitator.
With the Nets and 76ers, Harden — who was already an adept passer with the Rockets — was more methodical in his approach. He’s taken fewer shots each season since he left the Rockets, but has produced double-digit assists in each of those campaigns. Last season, Harden produced 21.0 points per game, his fewest since his last season in Oklahoma City in 2011-12, and was held out of the all-star game for the first time since that same season.
Despite the statistical drop-off, Harden is still one of the league’s most elite guards and has been a solid compliment alongside reigning MVP Joel Embiid. But, now, Harden finds himself at a crossroads between the past and the present.
Recent reports have indicated that Harden will likely resign with the 76ers, though. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of his fit on the current Rockets roster, especially with Houston possessing several young guards in Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, and Kevin Porter Jr.
Writing Roundball 
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